Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, March 31th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, but not by enough to offset weakness late yesterday. Stocks are showing minor gains (by today’s standards) with the Dow up 83 points and the Nasdaq up 66 points. The bond market is currently up 14/32 (0.68%). However, due to selling late in the day yesterday, we should still see an increase in today’s mortgage pricing.



30 yr - 0.68%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)

March's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning. The Conference Board announced a reading of 120.0, down from February’s revised 132.6. This was the weakest reading since July 2017, indicating a noticeable change in consumer confidence about their own financial situations. By theory, that is favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually translates into softer levels of consumer spending that fuels economic growth. The decline did not come as a surprise though, because the coronavirus started to heavily impact our daily lives during this report’s cover period. In fact, analysts were expecting to see a lower reading than we got this morning. The net result on today’s mortgage pricing has been minimal at best.



ADP Employment

We have two economic reports set for release tomorrow morning, starting with the ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. This report has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers. It tracks changes in private-sector jobs, using ADP's payroll processing clients as a base. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that usually follows a couple days later. Still, because it covers March, we could see a noticeable reaction to the results. Market participants are expecting it to show that approximately 175,000 private-sector jobs were lost during the month. The larger the decline, the better news it is for mortgage rates.



ISM Index (Institute for Supply Management)

Also set for release tomorrow but at 10:00 AM ET is the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index for March. This index gives us an extremely important measurement of manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives about business conditions. It is one of the freshest pieces of economic data each month and often has a big impact on the markets. A reading below 50 means more surveyed executives felt business worsened during the month than those who said it had improved. That is a strong sign of weakness in the manufacturing sector. This month's report is expected to show a sizable decline, related to the coronavirus. Forecasts are calling of a reading of 44.0, down from February’s 50.1.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.